We’re getting to the point of the season where preseason beliefs stop mattering, and we have to begin accepting the reality of what NFL teams are doing this season. We must let go of our biases and see which teams are better or worse than we thought.
I’ll admit, I thought the New England Patriots defense and a real offensive coordinator would be enough to sneak them into a wildcard spot. Now, I think I might have been wrong about that.
We also have to be careful not to put too much stock into our Week 1 reactions. With two weeks’ worth of data, we can now start to get a somewhat clearer picture for projecting these games. Let’s put it to the test with our favorite three-leg parlay for Week 3.
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Early NFL Week 3 Parlay
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Leg No. 1: Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks –4.5 (-110)
The Seahawks lost in Week 1 to the Los Angeles Rams. Many of us believed the Rams would not be very good this year. In Week 2, those same Rams played well against the San Francisco 49ers who many believe are, at minimum, a top–two team in the NFC. Now, the Seahawks’ loss to the Rams doesn’t look as bad. In Week 2, the Seahawks bounced back on the road with a win against a formidable team in the Detroit Lions.
The Panthers will have a rookie quarterback going into a very difficult road atmosphere. Not only will Bryce Young have to deal with the noise in Seattle, he’ll be doing it on short rest after playing Monday night. In addition, the Panthers will have to travel all the way across the country to Seattle, where they are 2-5 all time.
The Seahawks to cover in Seattle is my favorite play this week.
Leg No. 2: New England Patriots @ New York Jets Under 37.5 (-110)
This one comes down to two good defenses playing against two bad offenses. The 37.5 number is low, so the oddsmakers are trying to make this one tough to bet. Still, after two weeks of watching both teams struggle to move the ball, the under feels like the only bet here.
Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will give Breece Hall more than four touches, but even if he does, Bill Belichick has a history of taking away teams’ best weapons and forcing them to beat the Patriots in ways they don’t want to. I can’t think of anything the Jets want to do less than let Zach Wilson throw downfield all game.
Leg No. 3: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
C.J. Stroud went 30/47 for 384 yards and two touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. The Texans still lost 31-20, but seeing the rookie show that he has this ability makes me lean toward the Texans being in a few more games or at least able to put up late points when trailing to cover. I like the +9.5 this week against a Jacksonville team that only managed to put up nine points in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Jaguars’ offense had a rough week at home against the Chiefs, compiling only 271 total yards. I think they’ll be able to bounce back and play well against the Texans, but this team is growing and learning their offensive identity. Some teams play much better inside their division vs. outside of their division, and the Texans are 9-1 over their last 10 games against the Jaguars.
Three-Leg Parlay Odds: +596
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
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