Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Predictions, Player-Prop Picks & Best Odds

Jul 7, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner (42) reacts against the LA Sparks in the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsThe Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky resume WNBA play tonight after almost a month-long hiatusThe Sky hold the eighth and final playoff spot currently but are just 4-8 at home this seasonSee the Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky predictions, odds, and player-prop picks for Thursday, Aug. 15

Off since July 17 for the All-Star Game and Paris Olympics, the 2024 WNBA season resumes tonight with a trio of games, starting with the Phoenix Mercury (13-12, 5-8 away) visiting the Chicago Sky (10-14, 4-8 home) at Wintrust Arena at 7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET.

Despite already playing 25 of their 40 regular-season games, this will be Phoenix’s first of three meetings with Chicago this year, which means it’s a homecoming of sorts for longtime Sky superstar Kahleah Copper, who was traded to the Mercury in the offseason after seven seasons in the Windy City.

Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Predictions

Mercury moneyline (-135) at DraftKingsKahleah Copper under 24.5 points (-140) at bet365

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Copper is having the best season of her career in orange and purple, averaging a team-high 23.2 PPG and helping a Mercury team that won just nine games all of last season to keep their collective nose just above .500. Her 2024 performance was so impressive that she elbowed her way onto the hyper-competitive US Olympic team alongside teammates Brittney Griner and 42-year-old Diana Taurasi.

The Mercury’s “big three” of Copper, Griner, and Taurasi are the only players in this game who have seen meaningful game action in the last month and, as such, I expect them to have considerably less rust to shake off than the Chicago vanguard. Additionally, Chicago traded second-leading-scorer Marina Mabrey to Connecticut during the break, in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick and two veterans (Rachel Banham, Moriah Jefferson).

Both teams entered the Olympic break going 5-5 in their last ten and 2-2 in their last four but Chicago’s long-standing struggles at home have me leaning to the more-talented-on-paper Mercury. Not only is Chicago just 4-8 at home this year, they were a dismal 7-13 at Wintrust Arena last year (compared to 11-9 on the road). They’ll also be adjusting to life without Mabrey, their most-prolific three-point shooter. While she may not have been a great fit alongside leading scorer Chennedy Carter, she was the only Chicago player averaging more than one make per game from beyond the arc (2.3 per game at 34.8 3P%).

Despite backing the Mercury to cover, I also like the under on Copper’s massive point total of 24.5. Not only is that a shade above her season average (23.2), it’s also well below her median point total. In the first 25 games this year, Copper stayed under 24.5 in 14 (including the last two) and only went over in 11. And one of the overs came in a double-OT game when she only had 21 points in regulation.

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Mercury vs Sky: Best Odds

The Mercury vs Sky point spread is sitting at 2.5 at all sportsbooks but there is a little range in the odds. DraftKings has the best price on the Mercury to cover as road favorites at -108 while BetMGM has the best price on the Sky at -105. DraftKings also has the best moneyline for Phoenix at -135 for the Mercury to win straight-up. Both bet365 and BetMGM have the Sky at +120 to pull off a small upset.

The game total opened at 164.5 but is now 165.5 across the board and every book has the odds at -110 both ways.

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PHO Mercury vs CHI Sky Player Props

Player props as of Aug. 15 at DraftKings. See the DraftKings minimum deposit to fund your account.